NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 181946
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
346 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will give us a clear but chilly night tonight,
followed by a sunny and much milder day for Friday. Our next
chance for rain comes from an approaching cold front late Friday
night and on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Very quiet period as high pressure builds in. Light winds this
evening will become west and southwest late tonight over the
lake plain and Finger Lakes as the high moves east. To the
south, light winds and clear skies will allow for a very cold
night so Freeze Warnings have again been issued for those areas
still active in the growing season.

Much milder on Friday as southwest winds develop behind the
ridge. It will remain dry so there should be plenty of sun.

Models show some moisture returning Friday night well ahead of
the cold front. Amounts should be light with the dry air in
place and limited lift, but chance pops seem worth a mention for
the possibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 pm update...Little change made to the existing forecast, as
model solutions remain fairly consistent with earlier runs. Low
confidence on the exact timing of rain and frontal passage on
Saturday, as current short term models have differing solutions.

Clouds and warm advection generated showers should be on the
increase into early Saturday. After perhaps a brief break in
the action during the mid to late morning hours Saturday, more
showers, tied to the approach of a strong cold front, should
develop during the afternoon hours. Numerical models are
actually depicting a bit of instability with the frontal passage
(perhaps as much as 100-200 j/kg), particularly along and west
of the I-81 corridor. Although thunder can`t be completely ruled
out as a result, still will not introduce just yet in the
forecast, as there`s still time to track model consistency in
this regard. Highs on Saturday will be fairly seasonable, mainly
in the low-mid 50s. Westerly winds will be breezy through the
day, 10-20 mph.

Saturday night: Upper level trough axis moves overhead, with
moderate cold air advection developing over Central NY and
Northeast PA. WNW flow will waver a bit through the evening
hours, before veering and becoming steady northwesterly
overnight. This will combine with 850mb temps around -8 to -10C
to develop lake effect rain/snow showers across central NY and
the northern tier of PA. Could see some spotty minor snow
accumulations across the higher elevations of the Susquehanna
region of NY...less than 1 inch. Lows will be cold, dipping down
into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Sunday: Upper level trough slowly moves off the east through the
day. Could see some lingering snow showers in Central NY during
the morning hours on a NNW flow. Cold air mass remains in place
through the day, with high temperatures only reaching the upper
30s to mid-40s south. NW winds 8-15 mph will create wind chills
in the upper 20s to 30s through the day.

Sunday night: Upper level heights begin to rise, with a weak
warm air advection pattern developing in the mid levels of the
atmosphere. Surface high pressure system slides into the Mid-
Atlantic region...with a weak warm front pushing across the
northern portion of our CWA. Will see an increase in clouds
along this front, with a chance for some light rain/snow showers
to develop up near Syracuse/Rome. Another cold night, with lows
in the mid-20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

345 pm update...No significant changes to the long term forecast
with this update. Overall, an upper level trough looks to remain
in place across the northeastern US through the middle of the
week, with a series of weak disturbances rotating through the
area. This weak systems will mainly act to reinforce some
colder, Canadian air and bring chances for rain/snow showers
mainly for our central NY zones.

Monday/Monday night: Starts off mainly dry, but mostly cloudy
as our area will be under a southwest flow ahead of the next
approaching shortwave trough. There will be chances for rain
showers across central NY, especially heading into Monday night.
Temperatures aloft remain above freezing, with surface
temperatures reaching 45-50 Monday afternoon...and overnight
lows in the mid to upper 30s Monday night.

Tuesday/Tuesday night: Upper level trough swings through our
area and into New England during this time period. Moisture
looks to be limited with this system, but as 850mb temps fall
back to around -5C, we will likely see a lake response with
scattered rain showers, mixing with snow showers overnight.
Highs reach 50-55 Tuesday afternoon, with lows in the lower to
mid-30s Tuesday night.

Wednesday/Wednesday night: Our forecast area will be in the back
side of the departing trough, under a dry NNW flow. Still can`t
rule out some stray lake effect showers...especially early in
the day. Remaining cool, with highs in the 40s to near 50.
Otherwise, becoming partly cloudy, then mostly clear by
Wednesday night as a surface high builds over the region from
the upper Great Lakes. With light winds, and clear skies it
should still be rather chilly overnight, as lows dip into the
upper 20s and lower 30s.

Thursday/Thursday night: Latest guidance is in fairly good
agreement that an upper level ridge and surface high pressure
system will continue to slowly move into the area from the west.
The 12z ECMWF is the slowest bringing these features into our
area at this time...and would tend to linger some lake effect
showers longer. For now, kept the forecast dry with partly sunny
skies and moderating temperatures. Highs around 50, lows 30-35
Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR is expected under high pressure. Northerly winds this
afternoon will become variable overnight as the high moves in,
then westerly and southwest late on Friday as the high moves
east. Some LLWS is possible in area where light surfaces winds
develop as a result of decoupling, but winds aloft increase.
VFR continues into Friday with just some high clouds late in the
day.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...Restrictions in rain showers
possible, especially Saturday as cold front sweeps through.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Occasional restrictions
in mixed rain/snow showers, especially the NY terminals.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ044-047.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...MLJ/MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...DGM

NWS BGM Office Area Weather Forecast Discussion