NWS Forecast Discussion

143
FXUS61 KBGM 211854
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
254 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will bring widespread rain across our
region Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure then builds back
in through Thursday, but another cold front approaches the
region Friday morning with more showers expected to end the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM update...

After a beautiful afternoon and evening, clouds will be on the
increase again late tonight. A warm front will approach from the
south by early Tuesday morning and may start to kick off some
light rain showers across our far southern counties by daybreak
Tuesday. However, heavier and more widespread rainfall will not
arrive until later in the afternoon as a cold front enters
Western NY.

Latest model guidance has eased up with strength of low level
jet from previous runs, but still indicating 40 to 45 knots at
H850 and PWAT values increase to about 1.25", which is about 2
standard deviations above normal. Wind gusts, especially across
the higher terrain will be in 35 to 40 knot range, but overall
the winds look lighter than model runs we`ve seen the previous
few days. Strong forcing along the front could produce an
embedded thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon/evening, especially
across Central NY, but not enough confidence at this time to
include thunder in the forecast. Moderate to even heavy
rainfall is expected at times, but due to the progressive nature
of the front, not expecting any flooding issues. Highest
rainfall amounts still appear to be east of I81, with about an
inch of QPF expected and localized amounts possibly as high as
an inch and a half. Front exits the region just after midnight
and rainfall comes to an end.

&&

.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

A cold frontal boundary will continue to move east of the region on
Wednesday. However, for a time behind the front winds will
likely shift to westerly. As a result, moisture off of lake
Ontario will lead to lingering clouds and perhaps a light shower
or two in the traditional Lake Effect areas. We kept cloud
cover higher than blended model guidance across south central NY
through most of the day. High temperatures should push 60 on
Wednesday for most of the region.

High pressure will then build into the region for a clear night
with radiational cooling. With the radiational cooling, lows
should fall back into the 30`s. Our next cold front slowly
approaches the region late Thursday. This will result in enough
moisture and lift for a few spotty showers across the Finger
Lakes and the NY Thruway corridor. Southerly flow ahead of the
front will bring in warmer air with highs back into the 60`s on
Thursday. Cloud cover will likely keep temperatures up Thursday
night in the low 40`s.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Friday and Saturday:

The previously mentioned cold front will continue to move
slowly through the region. Modeling is hinting at some anti-
frontal showers to develop throughout the day as well but a
considerable spread on location and timing exists with ensemble
solutions. Temperatures behind the front with any showers Friday
may stay in the 40`s with drier locations ahead of the front
seeing some sunshine and Highs close to 60. Stayed close to
blended model guidance given the uncertainities here.

Behind the front, lake effect moisture should again lead
to some lingering clouds and moisture into the first part
of Saturday. Temperatures may cool enough for some snow flakes
to mix in across the NY Thruway corridor.


Saturday night through Monday:

Several ensemble members do show a larger system impacting the
region but given model uncertainities left it mainly dry behind
the cold front as high pressure builds into the region.
Temperatures look to be in the 30`s at night and the 50`s during
the day.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast through this evening with light
winds.

Cold front approaches from the west overnight into Tuesday and
lowering ceilings are expected through the night with possibly
MVFR by Tuesday morning.

Will have to monitor low level wind shear potential overnight as
well. For now, confidence is only high enough to include at SYR,
but conditions may come close at ELM, ITH and BGM as well.

Rainfall with the front will start moving across the area from
west to east tomorrow morning, chances for rainfall and possible
restrictions don`t really increase until after 18Z tomorrow.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night...restrictions likely
in rain showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...mainly VFR with IFR valley fog
possibly early Thursday morning.

Friday through Saturday...possible restrictions in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MPK

NWS BGM Office Area Weather Forecast Discussion