NWS Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KBGM 191428

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
928 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

A weak cool front will drop south through the region today followed
by slightly cooler air. For Monday and early Tuesday, high
pressure will provide more fair weather and above normal


9 am update...
Updated to raise temperatures. Far south already in the 50s with
rest mostly 40s. Max temps may again be well above guidance in
west and south where no snow cover left. Skies should become
sunnier this afternoon then increased clouds from north tonight.
Removed pops this morning and lowered a little this afternoon.

previous discussion...
Cold front will drop south through the area today bring cooler air
along with a few clouds and perhaps some light precipitation.
Front drops through in the mid to late afternoon followed by cold
air advection. 850mb temperatures drop below zero by late
afternoon over NY forecast area. After 00Z, the cold air advection
kind of levels off despite the continued northerly flow. Moisture
trapped below the shallow inversion will develop clouds, and
eventually some light precipitation. Saturated layer is well below
the ice crystal layer so result will be drizzle and freezing
drizzle into early Monday. Later Monday, drier air will break up
the clouds and precipitation.

Temperatures will continue above normal...especially over
northeast Pennsylvania where the cooler air really never reaches.
There will be a considerable differences in high temperatures
Monday across the forecast area, at least 10 to 15 degrees F.


340 AM EST Update...
A broad area of ridging aloft will be present Monday night that
will extend from FL northward towards the Mid-West. High pressure
at the sfc will be centered over the region as well resulting in
mostly clear skies and light and variable winds. The area of high
pressure will slowly drift eastward overnight and sfc winds will
start to increase over the Finger Lakes region. The uppr lvl ridge
is forecast to shift eastward Monday night and as it does so, WAA
around 500MB will start to occur, thus expect cirrus clouds to
start to push into the region from the SW.

A shortwave trough will start to approach the region from the west
early Tuesday morning and cause the ridge to break down slightly.
This shortwave will be the next wave to impact our area. As this
shortwave approaches it will increase WAA at lower-lvls and force
return flow across western NY/PA by 12Z Tues morning. This system
appears to be stacked, thus it`s attendant sfc low is forecast to
drift eastward across northern Ontario and push a "weak" frontal
boundary across the region late Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening.
There seems to be discrepancies within model guidance with this
system. The ECMWF continues to be the most consistent run to run,
thus leaned more towards the trend of the ECMWF. The GFS brings
brings the fropa through the region about 6 hours earlier than the
ECMWF. Overall, this system seems to be avg on moisture, PWAT
values are normal and as the system pushes east PWAT values
decrease. Kept pops on the low side as confidence is not great
that coverage over the area will be widespread attm and QPF values
are overall low. Rain will be the overall precip type with this
system as temps will be very warm for this time of year. There is
the slight chance that on the tail end of this system that the
typical locations in the higher terrain over the Poconos could see
a brief period of FZRA, but overall confidence is low attm.

Weak high pressure will build over the region on Wed. With the fropa
being more so a boundary, with very little CAA, temps are expected
to rise into the 50s across the area Wed afternoon.

Temps during this period will have a warming trend, with min temps
on Tues morning ranging in the low to mid 20s, increasing into the
mid to uppr 40s Tues afternoon. Wed temps will start off in the low
to uppr 30s, rising into the low to uppr 50s by the afternoon.


340 AM EST Update...
The extended forecast stats off with deep SW flow aloft over
much of the eastern CONUS as a trough starts to move on shore over
the west coast. This type of pattern will allow multiple waves
aloft to move over the NE resulting in environments conducive for
showers to develop over the region. This type of weather pattern
will also allow the continuation of well above normal temps over
the area. About 20 deg to be exact. Decided to keep chance of
precip over the are Wed night through Sat as a fairly active
pattern is likely. Temps may start to return closer to normal by


A bit of stratus and light fog this morning otherwise VFR
conditions prevail over the area. Dry conditions will continue
through today despite some cold air advection behind a weak cold
front. MVFR ceilings are possible near the end of the period with
the northwest flow.


Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...Restrictions possible in lower
ceilings and light precipitation with cold front.

Wednesday night and Thursday...mainly VFR but possible
restrictions late with warm front.





NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion