NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 200857
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
357 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers will diminish this morning as a ridge
of high pressure builds in from the west. This high will
dominate the weather through the week, with quiet and cold
conditions for the start of the new work week, but a gradual
warm up by mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

345 AM Update...

High pressure is building into the region this morning and this
will bring an end to the lake effect snow showers. Forecast
soundings indicate low level moisture at 06Z below 4K feet and
as the subsidence inversion lowers, we will see the column dry
out by later this morning. Still may see a few flurries into
early this afternoon, mostly just down wind from the Finger
Lakes in the N-NW flow.

Clearing skies tonight with winds going calm and a fresh snow
pack in place, means efficient radiational cooling overnight
into Tuesday morning. Could still keep clouds around downwind
from the lakes in the weak NW flow, but across the Catskills and
on northward into the western Mohawk valley could see below zero
readings by early Tuesday morning.

Surface ridging stays in place Tuesday, however a weak short
wave will pass by to our north late Tuesday afternoon and into
Tuesday evening. Models are hinting at a little lake moisture
being pulled in with the westerly flow, so this weak disturbance
could produce a few light snow showers, mainly across our
northern counties. NAM forecast sounding for Rome on Tuesday
afternoon is saturated below a subsidence inversion at about 3K
feet and temperatures in this layer generally above -10C.
However, there is a saturated mid-level layer about 4K feet
thick through the DGZ, so it is possible some seeder/feeder
effect could occur and slightly enhance snowfall. This will of
course depend on thick the dry layer is in-between these two
layers. Nonetheless, I have introduced some low chance PoPs
across our northern forecast zones and kept accumulations to
less than a half inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure building across NY and PA will bring quiet weather
and progressively milder days. A few lingering flurries are
possible over Oneida County through Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, the weather will remain dry through the middle of the
week.

Temperatures will rise into the middle 30s on Wednesday, then
into the lower 40s by Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Considerable model differences exist for the long term period,
reducing confidence in the extended forecast. A closed low is
forecast to form at the base of an upper level trough this
weekend. A surface cyclone will take shape near the trough base,
and this storm will track eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic
region.

The GFS and ECMWF disagree on various elements of this storm
including timing, track, and intensity. Currently, we are
forecasting snow showers to spread into NY and PA Friday night,
then begin to mix with rain on Saturday as the storm pulls
milder air into the northeast. The slow moving storm will keep a
wintry mix over our forecast area through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers and MVFR ceilings will continue through
dawn. Some of the heavier snow showers may briefly drop
visibility down to IFR, but any snow showers of that intensity
will be brief. Conditions will improve through the day as high
pressure builds into the region and VFR conditions are expected
everywhere with decreasing clouds through the day.

Outlook...

Monday evening through Tuesday...Mainly VFR

Wednesday through Friday...VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MPK

NWS BGM Office Area Weather Forecast Discussion