NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 240536
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
136 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger through the coming day, keeping the
weather dry with a mix of sun and clouds. However, a low
pressure will then spread showers and cooler weather back across
the region for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
735 PM update...
High cirrus has thinned somewhat over the last few hours. Enough
radiational cooling is projected to drop temperatures to around
50 degrees overnight, and that should allow fog to form along
the river valleys.

No further changes were made to the existing forecast package.

130 PM update...
High pressure will yield a mostly clear and seasonable night.
Temperatures will drop to near 50 degrees Wednesday morning,
with enough moisture in the boundary layer to support fog or
low stratus formation. We are leaning toward fog at this
juncture due to the light wind flow. Crossover temperatures are
2 to 4 degrees below Wednesday morning`s projected minimums, but
that may be misleading as dew points are projected to rise a
few degrees overnight.

Brief ridging in southwest flow ahead of the approaching
stacked system will push 925mb temperatures into the mid-teens
on Wednesday. Surface highs will push into the mid-70s as a
result.

1130 AM update...
Temperatures are rebounding after a very cool start to the
morning. Our grids depicted temperatures a little too warm
through noon, so we imported new mesoscale data to better fit
today`s diurnal curve.

Otherwise, no changes were necessary. A mix of sun and clouds
is forecast with temperatures peaking in the lower to middle-
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
228 PM EDT Update...
By Wed night the next storm system will start to impact the
region. An uppr-lvl trough will start to push into the mid-west
and the system`s mid-lvl trough will be located over the Ohio
Valley. Showers from it`s attendant sfc low will start to move
into western NY/PA after midnight and then engulf the region by
sunrise. It appears that this system will bring a steady rain
showers across the region. A few rumbles of will be possible
during Thursday afternoon. ATTM it looks like there will be two
waves of precip, a round early Thurs morning then a second batch
Thurs evening. This system will have minimal CAA with it, thus
sfc temps will not be influenced much by this sfc low and be
able rebound quickly by Friday (into the mid to uppr 60s).

Showers are likely to linger through Thursday night as the sfc low
slowly slides off to the east. Temps are expected to decrease into
the low to mid 50s Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
228 PM EDT Update...
The uppr low mentioned in the previous discussion will be slow to
depart and will continue to keep a slight chance for precip in the
forecast for Friday and Saturday.

An active weather pattern continues throughout the remainder of the
forecast period. Another potent uppr-lvl low will propagate eastward
across the northern plains starting Sunday, and will result in deep
SW flow aloft over the northeast. SW flow aloft will result in the
chance for precip over the region through the remainder of the
forecast period as multiple waves will move over the region
producing an environment conducive for showers.

Temps during the extended will be at or slightly above the seasonal
norm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will linger enough to keep all terminals VFR
through 06Z Thursday, except for a brief exception at KELM
early this morning. High cirrus at around 20 kft agl will be
thickening, which will prevent valley fog from being as thick as
the prior morning, but a small window of IFR visibility is
still expected to occur at times between 09Z-11Z. Winds will be
light and variable early, becoming southeast 4-7 knots.

Outlook...

Late Wednesday night through Friday night...Rain/showers with
associated restrictions likely due to low pressure system.

Saturday through Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Showers and restrictions becoming likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...MDP

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion