NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 201501
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1101 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area today through Monday
bringing seasonably warm, dry weather to the area today then
warm and more humid weather on Monday. A cold front will
approach from the west on Tuesday bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening.
Some of the storms could be strong to severe with strong winds
or heavy rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

1050 AM UPDATE...Little change to the forecast at this update.
Just minor tweeks to the temps and winds.

Updated at 630 am. Skies have become mostly clear across most of
the area, while the exception of a few stubbourn clouds and even
a few sprinkles southeast of Lake Ontario. High pressure
building toward the area will bring plenty of sunshine across
the area today with highs near 80. Previous discussion is below.

Broken clouds and even a few sprinkles have been persisting
south and east of Lake Ontario early this morning however latest
satellite loops indicate that the clouds are gradually thinning
out and moving east. Clearing skies should allow for some fog
formation during the next few hours, especially at locations
that had significant rainfall yesterday. Fog will dissipate by
mid morning allowing for lots of sunshine and seasonably warm
high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Skies will be
mostly clear tonight with patchy fog developing again toward
morning, then Monday will feature plenty of sunshine and more
humidity with dew points climbing back into the mid to upper 60s
and temperatures mainly in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday night should remain primarily dry as surface high
pressure moves off the mid Atlantic coast and low pressure
tracks into the central Great Lakes region. A southwest flow
will keep temperatures mild with overnight lows ranging from the
middle 60s in the western Catskills to around 70 in the lake
plain.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Low pressure lifting northeast from the
central Great Lakes region into eastern Canada will drag a cold
front through the area during the afternoon and evening hours.
Convective parameters indicate the potential for severe weather
due to significant CAPE especially from I81 west, deep layer
shear, strong mid level flow, significant low level helicity and
frontal forcing. Will mention the potential for severe weather
in the HWO. Later in the evening the convection should be below
severe weather thresholds as the atmosphere becomes more stable.
Will carry likely pops Tuesday afternoon and evening. Highs on
Tuesday will range in the middle to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Medium range models are in good agreement through the extended
period. In general a cutoff low in eastern Canada will keep a
deep upper level trough over the northeast while a cool fall-
like surface high builds southeast across the region from
central Canada. Will continue with slight chc/chance pops
Wednesday through Thursday for showers though this will be
primarily diurnally driven with low level moisture and cold pool
aloft. The rest of the period looks dry with high pressure in
the vicinity. Temperatures will run about 5 degrees below
seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Isolated patches of fog will dissipate shortly after 12z, the
expect plenty of sunshine today with VFR conditions at all TAF
sites. Patches of fog and low cloud will develop again late
tonight.

Winds will be west-northwest at 5 to 15 kts Sunday then light
and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR. Possible IFR in valley fog early.

Tuesday...Restrictions possible in thunderstorms.

Wednesday/Thursday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MSE
NEAR TERM...DGM/MSE
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DGM/MSE

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion