NWS Forecast Discussion
FXUS61 KBGM 291048
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
648 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
High pressure will provide for cooler yet seasonable and dry
conditions today through most of Thursday. Our next system will
pass through with rain Thursday night through Friday night,
though an accumulating wet snow may occur at higher elevations,
especially east of Interstate 81 in Central New York. A few
showers may linger into Saturday on an otherwise dry weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
645 AM Update...
Much quicker-than-expected clearing has occurred across most of
Central New York and now crossing into the Northern Tier of
Pennsylvania; this is surprising given the northwesterly flow
and no sunlight yet to mix down drier air yet. Forecast adjusted
accordingly to allow more sun earlier this morning. That being
said, additional clouds reside in eastern Ontario, a piece of
which will advect into our area though probably in more of a
cellular form. Also, lower levels should be rather turbulent
midday as high end-of-March sun angle competes with cold air
advection for a lot of mixing. This will also contribute to
formation of a diurnal cumulus field for a time, before that
succumbs to drier air mid-to-late afternoon.
Fairly quiet in the near term thanks to ridge of Canadian high
pressure, with seasonably chilly temperatures today trending
close to climatology tonight into Thursday.
Rain from prior system has come-and-gone, and temperatures are
now significantly cooler after earlier producing significant
melting of remaining snowpack. We have closely monitored rises
in our rivers and streams, and this will continue into today.
However, forecast crests are now skewed lower, keeping all river
points below flood stage even though a few points get within a
foot or two. With dry weather and much slower melting today, and
lower river forecasts, the Flood Watch that had been in effect
for portions of Upper Susquehanna-Delaware basins was cancelled
late yesterday evening.
Moisture remains trapped under developing subsidence inversion
as high pressure ridge continue to build into the region.
However, overall moisture is quite shallow and air mass is dry.
We will see erosion of remaining stratocumulus deck today,
though with northwest flow, the usual suspects in portions of
Twin Tiers and especially in higher terrain east of I-81 in
Central NY to northeast tip of PA will take longer to scatter
out. Cold air advection regime will result in highs in the lower
to mid 40s for Central NY, and mid 40s-lower 50s in Northeast
PA. While cooler than Tuesday, this is not far from normal.
Dry and mostly clear conditions can be expected tonight through
at least midday Thursday, as ridge extends from high pressure
center in Quebec and passes through the region. Lows tonight
will be in the 20s, followed by upper 40s-lower 50s for highs
Thursday. Clouds will begin to thicken in the afternoon, ahead
of our next system. A small chance of rain may sneak into the
Finger Lakes- Central Southern Tier, though dry lower levels
will make initial attempts at showers a bit of a challenge due
to rain evaporating before hitting the ground. Rain chances will
be much higher heading into Thursday night.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
220 AM update...
Low pressure sliding northeastward into the Ohio Valley will
spread precipitation into NY and PA Thursday night ahead of an
approaching warm front.
Entrenched low-level cold air will support the precipitation to
begin as snow, especially east of I-81. A wintry mix is also
possible, but the main threat appears to be snow per model
Snow will continue over our eastern forecast area early Friday,
where a few inches of wet snow accumulation is expected before
the warm air arrives and changes the precipitation to rain
during the afternoon.
As precipitation tapers off Friday night, temperatures will fall
into the lower and middle-30s. The rain could mix with snow or a
wintry mix at the tail end of the event, especially east of
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As the frontal system pulls east Saturday morning, precipitation
will end and clouds will begin to break up. The GFS and ECMWF
agree on a dry weather trend for Saturday afternoon through
Monday, before another storm system takes a familiar track out
of the plains and into the Ohio Valley Monday night. This
storm system will spread rain into NY/PA through midweek.
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A northwest flow continues over the terminals, which usually
means persistent restrictions. However, conditions improved
quicker than expected overnight. KAVP will still have another
couple hours of high end MVFR 12Z-14Z, otherwise it will join
remainder of terminals at VFR today. A scattered to broken
cumulus field will redevelop for much of the daytime period, yet
at VFR levels around 4-5 kft. Winds will be NW or NNW around
6-12 knots, with gusts of 15-20 knots late morning through
afternoon. Winds tonight will be light north- northwest or
Thursday night through Saturday...Restrictions likely in
showers, especially Thursday night through Friday night. Snow
may be mixed in at times for KRME.
Saturday night through Sunday...Primarily VFR.
NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion