NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 251358
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
958 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather will prevail in the forecast through Tuesday
with cooler than normal temperatures. Dry weather is expected
on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Valley fog has lifted this morning and a diurnal cu field is now
starting to develop. The next shortwave to impact the region is
over the eastern Great Lakes region. This wave will eject
embedded vorticity maxima over the region and the combination
of steep lapse rates, plenty of low-lvl moisture, and the summer
sun, we may see scattered showers over the region today. The
best chance for showers will be during peak heating. The temp
forecast is still on track and very minor changes were made to
the previous forecast. For more information please read the
previous forecast discussion below.

Previous forecast discussion...
3 am update... Quiet for now with no showers. Some dense valley
fog has formed in south central NY and northeast PA early this
morning.

Unsettled weather continues as an upper level trough moves into
the area late today and remains into Monday. Today instability
will develop midday as the surface heats up. Waves move through
with a weak late day surface front. Then with cold air advection
and the upper level trough overhead showers will continue. It
might get cold enough for lake enhancement with a northwest low
level flow and 850mb temperatures falling to +5c.

Monday another short wave drops into the trough setting off more
showers. Both days weak instability but moderate shear so
thunderstorms are possible.

Temperatures below normal with highs in the 70s today and around
70 Monday. Lows mainly in the 50s again like this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 am update... Cool, unsettled weather continues this period.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms early Tuesday evening, will
diminish overnight, as the atmosphere stabilizes. Lows by
daybreak should range from the upper 40s-mid 50s. Any late night
clearing could result in areas of fog, but due to sky cover
uncertainty at this juncture, we`ll let later shifts add this
mention, if needed.

Tuesday, as another short-wave likely rounds the base of the
large-scale trough and impacts CNY/NEPA, at least scattered
afternoon convection is anticipated. For now, we`ll cap
precipitation probabilities near 50%, and emphasize the diurnal
heating maximum in the afternoon. Tuesday will be another cool
day, with highs mostly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 am update... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that
the long-wave trough across eastern Canada and the northeastern
CONUS will lift out this period, allowing some height rises and
a more zonal flow to develop with time. This should bring
moderating temperatures, with daily highs back to seasonal
norms for late June-early July (70s and 80s).

Most of Wednesday looks rain-free at this early juncture, with
surface ridging over the mid-Atlantic our main feature. A
frontal boundary perched just to our north near the
international border, along with a return of more humid,
unstable air, will bring the chances for late week showers and
thunderstorms back into the picture. However, none of these days
looks like a washout, with convection emphasized during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
630 am update...

Valley fog happened at AVP briefly and is just below the field
here at BGM. ELM probably did not have fog. Don`t know for sure
with no observations sent due to continuing communication line
failure.

For the next regular issuance at 1130z fog should be gone with
scattered mid clouds. VFR ceilings from convection clouds that
develop late morning and continue into the evening. After that
a mid deck late tonight. Scattered showers with a few
thunderstorms mostly this afternoon and evening. Most likely at
SYR/RME where tempos for late day nonrestrictive showers were
included. Elsewhere could also have a scattered but briefer
shower.

Today west winds increasing to 10 kts this morning with higher
afternoon gusts. This evening back to light west or variable.

Outlook...

Monday - Tuesday...Mostly VFR, but restrictions are possible
with occasional showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...KAH/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...TAC

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion