NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 251054
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
654 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry Canadian high pressure will clear out the sky this morning,
with fairly cool and quiet conditions through Tuesday. A system
is expected to pass through the region Wednesday into early
Thursday with showers and thunderstorms, followed building heat
and humidity Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 AM Update...
An anomalously dry Canadian air mass will take charge for the
near term period as high pressure overspreads and then passes
through the region.

Surface front already cleared the area during the evening, but
now a shortwave will finish things off early this morning in
terms of bringing in a very dry air mass. A narrow band of very
light scattered showers/drizzle is descending over Central NY
associated with the shortwave though this will be short-lived
as the little moisture that remains becomes very shallow.
GOES-16 water vapor imagery clearly displays extremely dry air
mass now descending out of Canada and across Lake Ontario. It
will press on over our region today, with remnants of shallow
cloud cover this morning quickly mixing out to a clear sky
through the afternoon. Precipitable water values of only a
quarter to third of an inch will be realized late today.
Sounding climatology plots for Buffalo and Albany reveal that
this will be very near lowest-observed values for late June. As
such, with mixing this afternoon, we are also expecting
dewpoints falling deep into the 40s - below already low model
guidance - and maximum temperatures of mid 70s to near 80.

Ideal raditional cooling conditions will take hold tonight;
with very dry air, calming wind, and surface high drifting
directly overhead. We have thus aimed a bit low for minimum
temperatures tonight; mostly in the 40s. It is actually not a
stretch that a couple of our typically coldest drainage spots
in Central NY could even barely slip below 40. Very chilly for
this time of year.

Full sunshine and continued very dry air will push the diurnal
range very wide on Tuesday. After the cool dawn, afternoon highs
will be up a good 30-35 degrees from morning lows to actually
reach near climatology; mid 70s-near 80 again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A storm sliding across Lower Michigan will spread showers and
thunderstorms into NY and PA on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

While kinematics and shear appear favorable for enhanced
convection, the late arrival of the cold front Wednesday night
will be a limiting factor on instability, hence the uncertainty
with regard to severe weather coverage and intensity.

The mid-level trough will push across our forecast area on
Thursday, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A powerful high pressure ridge will build out of the Central
United States into the northeast during the long term period.

Temperature will rise well into the 80s on Friday, then the
ridge axis will extend across NY/PA on Saturday, with a 594dm
high centered over PA at 500mb. Temperatures will reach the 90s
on both Saturday and Sunday.

Given the likelihood for high dew points coincident with the
heat, we will need to monitor the forecast for a potential heat
advisory.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z Update...
Restrictions will only briefly linger KITH-KELM-KBGM-KAVP from
shallow ceilings that will be quick to scatter as Canadian high
pressure builds in to bring much drier air to the region. VFR
is expected for the remainder of the TAF period with mostly
clear sky this afternoon through tonight. Light northwest wind
will increase to around 10 knots with occasional higher gusts
late morning through afternoon before quickly subsiding in
evening and becoming variable or calm overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Occasional restrictions in showers
and thunderstorms, especially Wednesday afternoon through night.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP

NWS BGM Office Area Weather Forecast Discussion