NWS Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBGM 192337
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
637 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will push rain showers into NY and PA over the
next few days. Much milder air will move into our region,
setting the stage for near record warmth on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
335 PM update...

Issued Flood Watch for Northern Oneida County.

245 PM update...

An unusually warm and humid flow will strengthen Monday night
into Tuesday upstream of a frontal system draped across the
Great Lakes.

Rain showers will run out ahead of the front through this
evening, then taper off over all but the northern forecast area
by Tuesday morning. 925mb temperatures will soar to +11C to +12C
by afternoon, allowing surface temperatures to climb into the
60s.

Little to no QPF is forecast for Tuesday morning through the
afternoon hours.


952 AM update...

Mid and high clouds will continue to stream over NY and PA as
warm air advection increases. The end result will be
temperatures climbing through the 40s through sunset.

The strongest warm air advection takes place late tonight,
setting the stage for rising temperatures through Tuesday
morning, amid decreasing rain shower activity.

Minor changes were made to temperatures with this morning`s
update and were largely based on latest ConsShort.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 PM update...

A frontal system parked over the Great Lakes will remain to our
west through midday Wednesday before making a run at our
forecast area late in the day.

Ahead of the front, very mild air be in place. Despite a fair
amount of cloud cover, temperatures will once again push into
the 60s.

Showers along and ahead of the front will arrive over the far
northwestern forecast area during the morning hours, then spread
to the I-81 corridor Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM update...
The pattern will remain active late this week and into the weekend with
periods of rain and mild temperatures.

The synoptic pattern will remain relatively stagnant during this
time with a broad, amplified upper level ridge over the srn
Atlantic coast...extending nwd into the Northeast and a
continuous supply of moisture being fed n/newd from the srn
Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley into the mid Atlantic
region.

A cold front will move through Wednesday night nw to se and allow for a
brief period of cooler and drier weather into Thursday morning.
Temperatures will fall into the 30s. The cold air mass will shift back
to the north/ne Thursday afternoon as a weak upper wave slide ewd
across PA and clips ne PA with a couple tenths of an inch of rain.
Temperatures on Thursday will only warm into the mid/upper 30s NY and
into the lower 40s PA.

Another brief respite from the wet conditions will be felt Thursday
night before the next surface low moves newd through the region Friday
and Friday night along the same stream of moisture from the sw. There
may be a few snowflakes mixed in at times during the overnight/early
morning hours, but generally temperatures should remain warm enough for
all rain. Could see another quarter to half inch. Another lull in the
pattern possible early Saturday before the next system sweeps through
Saturday night/Sunday. May see the rain change to/mix with snow later
in the day Sunday.

Temperatures this weekend will remain on the warm side of climatology
with highs in the mid to upper 40s close to 50...and overnight lows in
the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A warm front is lifting northward tonight bringing rain to many
of the sites. As the night wears on, much of the rain will loft
north of the region, however MVFR and spotty IFR conditions
will continue as fog settles into the area. LLWS will affect
mainly of the sites with the light winds near the surface and a
strong low level jet aloft. Conditions improve after 12Z Tuesday
as drier air arrives from the southwest.

Outlook...
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning...VFR.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Chance of restrictions
and rain showers. Rain may mix with snow late Wednesday night-
Thursday morning for the NY terminals.

Thursday night through Friday...Mainly VFR with chance of rain
showers, possibly mixed with snow. Local restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch from 1 AM EST Tuesday through late Wednesday night
     for NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DGM/DJP

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion